Session 2

summary: we discuss some general tools that are useful for many different forecasting situations. We will describe some benchmark forecasting methods, methods for checking whether a forecasting method has adequately utilised the available information, techniques for computing prediction intervals, Each of the tools discussed in this session will be used with any forecasting model.

Questions

Forecasting Toolbox 1

1. What is a forecasting toolbox and how it is useful in many different forecasting situations?
2. What are simple forecasting methods and benchmarks?
3. How to specify and estimate models using R functions in fable?
4. What are fitted values and residuals and how to extract them?
5. How to produce point forecast and prediction interval?

Forecasting Toolbox 2: Forecast accuracy evaluation

1.How do we know if the forecasting model is good for our time series? 2. How can we check whether a forecasting model has adequately utilised the available information? 3. What are point and prediction interval forecast error metrics? 4. How to evaluate the accuracy performance of the forecasting model? 5. What is the most reliable way to evaluate the forecast accuracy?

Schedule

Readings